Affiliate Disclosure: This post may include affiliate links. If you click and make a purchase, I may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you.
Counterpoint Research expects advanced memory prices to double by the end of 2026, warning that a widening DRAM shortage is pushing the market into its most unstable period in years.
The firm says memory prices will jump 30% in Q4 2025 and another 20% in early 2026. That comes on top of a 50% rise already logged this year. The squeeze is worst in legacy LPDDR4, where suppliers have shifted production toward newer parts to meet AI demand. This has flipped the usual pricing ladder: DDR4 is now trading higher than both DDR5 and even HBM3e.
Spot price imbalances are occurring: DDR5 for servers and PCs trades at around $1.50 per gigabit. At the same time, older DDR4 used in consumer electronics fetches $2.10 – higher than that of even advanced HBM3e, which is hovering around $1.70.
The report notes that all major chipmakers, including Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China’s CXMT, are set to lift DRAM output more than 20% in 2026. Even so, supply may not keep up with a new force in the market, i.e., NVIDIA. The company’s move to LPDDR for servers puts it on par with a top smartphone vendor in terms of memory demand, creating a structural shock to the supply chain.
Counterpoint warns that DRAM module prices for 64GB DDR5 RDIMMs could double between early 2025 and late 2026 in a tight-supply scenario. The firm’s chart shows steep price gains through Q2 2026, with only mild relief afterward.
Budget smartphones are already feeling the strain as LPDDR4 grows scarce. Analysts expect the pressure to spread to mid- and high-end phones, adding as much as 25% to bill-of-materials costs. That could hit margins or slow product cycles.
The outlook remains fragile. Trade policy, geopolitical stress, and labor trends may amplify the shock. With demand rising fast and capacity slow to adjust, the memory industry faces a turbulent stretch that will test both suppliers and device makers, and push pricing power sharply upstream.
